TrackerPatent cliff
Patents protect pharma profits. Track when the biggest ones expire.
Seven of the ten best-selling medicines in the world will lose U.S. exclusivity before 2031.
By Meera RaghunathanPublished · 1 min read
A drug's commercial life is set less by medicine than by law. When the main patents expire, generic or biosimilar competitors arrive and sales typically fall by 80% or more within two years for pills, more slowly for biologic drugs.
The industry is approaching the largest concentration of expirations it has faced.
| Therapeutic area | Annual sales at risk | First U.S. expiry |
|---|---|---|
| Cancer immunotherapy | $31B | 2028 |
| Anticoagulation | $19B | 2027 |
| Autoimmune disease | $17B | 2029 |
| Diabetes | $14B | 2030 |
| HIV | $9B | 2029 |
Companies have several ways to soften the decline: new formulations, combination products and settlements that delay competitors' entry. All three are drawing more attention from regulators and lawmakers than they did a decade ago.
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